ISAIAS
Plain Language Summary
Tropical Storm Isaias is about 285 miles west of Progreso, Mexico (and about 580 miles southwest of the Mouth of the Mississippi River), moving east-northeast at 8 mph. Maximum sustained winds are 40 mph.
Why forecasters expect this
Winds in the middle layers of the atmosphere are being shaped by an elongated area of lower pressure in the mid-levels (a “mid-level trough,” meaning a stretched-out zone of lower pressure in the middle layers of the atmosphere), which is why NHC’s forecast keeps the storm generally following that flow at first.
The environment ahead (wind shear, ocean heat and moisture along NHC's forecast track, from NHC's statistical guidance) is part of Advanced. Upgrade to Advanced