Dujuan
Western Pacific
Typhoon · WP242026
27.8°N,
138.2°E
Moving NW at 13 mph
Max Winds
75 mph
Pressure
980 mb
Forecast Points
7
JMA Winds (10-min avg)
65.0 kt
JMA Pressure
970.0 hPa
JMA (10-min average): Typhoon No. 2625
· Dujuan
Summary
Typhoon Dujuan is currently a typhoon with maximum sustained winds of 75 mph. It is located about 456 nautical miles south of Yokosuka, Japan, and has been moving northwest at about 13 mph over the past six hours.
Dujuan is being steered by a subtropical ridge to its northeast. The forecast calls for the typhoon to turn northward and then begin recurving toward the northeast within the next 24 hours, with the swath of strongest winds expected to stay to the southeast of mainland Japan.
The typhoon is expected to hold near typhoon strength through about 36 hours, with a brief re-intensification possible afterward as it passes over the warm waters of the Kuroshio Current. JTWC’s forecast peaks near 75 kt (about 86 mph) around 60 hours, after which cooling waters, increasing dry air, and stronger wind shear should lead to weakening and a transition toward an extratropical system by 96 hours.
Key messages
- Dujuan is a typhoon now with 75 mph sustained winds and is moving northwest south of Yokosuka, Japan.
- The storm is forecast to turn north and then recurving northeast, with the strongest winds expected to remain southeast of mainland Japan.
- Dujuan may briefly strengthen to around 86 mph near 60 hours, then weaken and complete extratropical transition by 96 hours.
Forecast intensity
JTWC forecast maximum sustained winds (mph) by hour.
Satellite Imagery (IR)
CIRA/RAMMB · 19 Sep 17:50 UTC
JTWC Warning #17 19 Sep 12:00 UTC
WTPN31 PGTW 191500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TYPHOON 24W (DUJUAN) WARNING NR 017//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 24W (DUJUAN) WARNING NR 017
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
191200Z --- NEAR 27.8N 138.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 315 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND EXTRAPOLATION
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 220 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
220 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 27.8N 138.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
200000Z --- 29.1N 137.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 220 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
220 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 355 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
201200Z --- 30.6N 137.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 220 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
210 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 020 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
210000Z --- 32.5N 138.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 045 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
211200Z --- 34.8N 140.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 055 DEG/ 22 KTS
---
60 HRS, VALID AT:
220000Z --- 37.4N 145.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 060 DEG/ 28 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
221200Z --- 39.9N 151.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 065 DEG/ 30 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
231200Z --- 44.1N 166.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
191500Z POSITION NEAR 28.1N 138.0E.
19SEP26. TYPHOON 24W (DUJUAN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 456 NM SOUTH
OF YOKOSUKA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 191200Z IS 980 MB.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 191200Z IS 30 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS
AT 192100Z, 200300Z, 200900Z AND 201500Z.//
NNNN
Forecast Reasoning 19 Sep 15:00 UTC
WDPN31 PGTW 191500 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 24W (DUJUAN) WARNING NR 017// RMKS/ 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS. SUMMARY: INITIAL POSITION: 27.8N 138.2E INITIAL INTENSITY: 65 KTS GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 456 NM SOUTH OF YOKOSUKA, JAPAN MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: NORTHWESTWARD AT 11 KTS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 30 FEET SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION: ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS SPIRAL BANDS OF DEEP CONVECTION WRAPPING INTO THE COMPACT INNER CORE OF TYPHOON (TY) 24W (DUJUAN). DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT IS PRESENT NEARLY FULLY ENCOMPASSING THE BROADER CIRCULATION, SIGNIFICANTLY IMPACTING THE ABILITY OF THE SYSTEM TO INTENSIFY. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE ANALYSIS OF LOW-LEVEL CLOUDS AND EXTRAPOLATION FROM A 190858Z RCM-2 SAR PASS. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 65 KTS IS ALSO ASSESSED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE FUSION OF CONGRUENT SATELLITE DVORAK FIXES AND AUTOMATED OBJECTIVE ESTIMATES LISTED BELOW. A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT IS CHARACTERIZED BY AN EXCELLENT POLEWARD EXHAUST CHANNEL AND BENIGN VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) OF 10-15 KTS IN TANDEM WITH CONDUCIVE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST) OF 28-29 C. INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: OBJECTIVE BEST TRACK CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) CENTERED TO THE NORTHEAST AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: PGTW: T4.0 - 65 KTS RJTD: T4.0 - 65 KTS RCTP: T4.0 - 65 KTS CIMSS SATCON: 64 KTS AT 190839Z CIMSS ADT: 51 KTS AT 191140Z CIMSS AIDT: 46 KTS AT 191140Z CIMSS D-MINT: 67 KTS AT 190839Z CIMSS D-PRINT: 63 KTS AT 191210Z FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: MARGINALLY FAVORABLE VWS: 10-15 KTS SST: 28-29 CELSIUS OUTFLOW: STRONG POLEWARD OTHER FACTORS: DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE: INITIAL POSITION: MEDIUM INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM INITIAL WIND RADII: LOW 3. FORECAST REASONING. SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING. FORECAST DISCUSSION: TY DUJUAN IS PROPAGATING ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) ANCHORED TO THE NORTHEAST. THE CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO ROUND THE STR AXIS WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS, INITIATING A RECURVATURE VECTOR TOWARD THE NORTHEAST THAT PLACES THE SWATH OF STRONGEST WINDS TO THE SOUTHEAST OF MAINLAND JAPAN. THROUGH TAU 36, THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED WILL HOVER NEAR 65 KTS WITHIN A MARGINALLY CONDUCIVE SYNOPTIC ENVIRONMENT. SLIGHT DYNAMIC RE-DEEPENING IS FEASIBLE SHORTLY AFTER, ASSISTED BY AN ACCELERATED POLEWARD OUTFLOW FLUX AND DIRECT TRANSIT OVER THE WARM WATERS OF THE KUROSHIO CURRENT. DYNAMICAL GLOBAL MODEL FIELDS INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR THE SYSTEM TO BRIEFLY COCOON FROM THE SURROUNDING DRY AIR. AROUND TAU 60, RAPIDLY COOLING SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, INCREASING ENTRAINMENT OF DRY TROPOSPHERIC AIR, AND SIGNIFICANTLY ESCALATING VWS WILL DEPRESS THE VORTEX INTO A TERMINAL WEAKENING PHASE. EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT) IS ANTICIPATED TO ENGAGE, WITH THE ACCELERATING SYSTEM COMPLETING THE TRANSITION BY TAU 96 AS IT POSITIONS ITSELF UNDERNEATH POWERFUL UPPER-LEVEL WESTERLY JET STREAM ALOFT. MODEL DISCUSSION: DYNAMICAL TRACK GUIDANCE SOLUTIONS REVEAL GOOD AGREEMENT, CHARACTERIZED BY AN IMPROVED 40 NM CROSS-TRACK SPREAD AT THE CLOSEST POINT OF APPROACH (CPA) TO YOKOSUKA, JAPAN. ALONG-TRACK SPREAD RISES TO 110 NM, WHILE THE OFFICIAL JTWC TRACK IS POSITIONED CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. REGARDING INTENSITY, THE GENERAL ENVELOPE RESOLVES TYPHOON-STRENGTH RETENTION OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. DIVERGENCE EXPANDS SUBSTANTIALLY AT TAU 60, OPENING TO A 40 KTS SPREAD SPANNING 45 TO 85 KTS. STATISTICAL- DYNAMICAL SCENARIOS PROJECT CONTINUOUS WEAKENING, WHILE MOST OF THE DYNAMICAL SOLUTIONS (HAFS, COAMPS-TC, AND GFS) DEPICT A SHORT-LIVED RE-INTENSIFICATION PHASE REFLECTED IN THE OFFICIAL JTWC PROJECTION REACHING A PEAK OF 75 KTS AROUND TAU 60. ACCORDINGLY, THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY OUTLOOK CONVERGES NEAR THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS AND IS ASSESSED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE. FORECAST CONFIDENCE: TRACK 00-72 HR: HIGH TRACK 72-120 HR: HIGH INTENSITY 00-72 HR: MEDIUM INTENSITY 72-120 HR: MEDIUM// NNNN
Products not available for West Pacific storms
- NEXRAD radar — no radar coverage over the open West Pacific.
- Storm-surge inundation — no public storm-surge model for this basin.
- Wind-speed probabilities — JTWC does not publish them.
- Watches and warnings — issued by local agencies (PAGASA, JMA, CWA), not JTWC.
- Reconnaissance aircraft — no routine aircraft reconnaissance in the West Pacific.
- Rapid-intensification and shear diagnostics — SHIPS-based guidance is not published for this basin.
These are data-availability limits for the West Pacific basin, not omissions.
Source: U.S. Navy/Air Force Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC), via the UCAR Tropical Cyclone Guidance Project. JTWC data is in the public domain. · Updated 2026-09-19 14:47 UTC · JMA analysis: Source: Japan Meteorological Agency (10-minute average winds). Satellite imagery: CIRA/RAMMB.