2-day Outlook — Eastern Pacific
Plain-language outlook
In the next 48 hours: Invest 99E — a large area of disorganized showers and storms south‑southwest of southwestern Mexico — has a high chance (about 80%) of becoming a tropical depression as it moves northward off that coast. Invest 98E — well southwest of the southern tip of Baja — also has a high chance (about 80%) of becoming a tropical depression while moving west‑northwest; a small third area has a low (about 10%) chance.
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Eastern Pacific
NHC text discussion
Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1100 AM PDT Sat Sep 19 2026 For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude: South-Southwest of Southwestern Mexico (EP99): Persistent but disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity is associated with a broad area of low pressure well south-southwest of the southwestern coast of Mexico. Environmental conditions are conducive for development, and a tropical depression is expected to form over the next couple of days as the system moves generally northward off the coast of southwestern Mexico. Interests along the southwestern and west-central coast of Mexico should monitor the progress of this system. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent. Western East Pacific (EP98): A broad area of low pressure located well southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California Peninsula continues to produce disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions are conducive for development, and a tropical depression is expected to form over the next several days as it moves westward to west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph across the western East Pacific. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent. Well East-Southeast of the Hawaiian Islands (Former TD 15-E): Showers and thunderstorms associated with the remnants of Tropical Depression Fifteen-E, located well east of the Hawaiian Islands, remain persistent, but disorganized. Environmental conditions appear conducive for some development of this system next week as it moves westward to west-southwestward, and a tropical depression could form well to the south or southeast of the Hawaiian Islands towards the middle to latter portion of next week. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...medium...60 percent. $$ Forecaster Katz/Berg