7-day Outlook — Eastern Pacific

Extended outlook for tropical systems that could form within the next week.

Atlantic Eastern Pacific Central Pacific Western Pacific

Plain-language outlook

Tropical Storm Elida is the only system in the Eastern Pacific, sitting several hundred miles south‑southwest of Baja California and moving west. It may bring heavier rain and higher surf to parts of southern Baja if it moves closer; otherwise no other organized systems are expected in the Eastern Pacific over the next 7 days.

This is a short summary. Upgrade for the full forecast summary

Eastern Pacific

NHC text discussion

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Wed Jul 15 2026

For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical 
Storm Elida, located several hundred miles south of the southern tip 
of the Baja California Peninsula. 

Well Southwest of the Hawaiian Islands (CP90):
Disorganized showers and thunderstorms continue to develop around a 
trough of low pressure located well southwest of the Hawaiian 
Islands and several hundred miles south-southeast of Johnston Atoll. 
Environmental conditions appear favorable for gradual development 
of the system over the next couple of days, and it could become a 
tropical depression by the end of the week as it moves slowly 
northwestward toward the vicinity of Johnston Atoll. 
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent. 
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...50 percent.

Well South-Southeast of the Hawaiian Islands (CP91):
A broad area of low pressure located several hundred miles 
south-southeast of the Hawaiian Islands is producing limited shower 
and thunderstorm activity. Environmental conditions continue to 
become less favorable, and its chances for further development are 
decreasing.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent. 
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...10 percent.

Offshore of Southern and Southwestern Mexico:
An area of low pressure is expected to form later this week several 
hundred miles south of the coast of southern Mexico. Environmental 
conditions appear conducive for gradual development of this system 
thereafter, and a tropical depression is likely to form by this 
weekend into early next week while it moves generally 
west-northwestward well offshore of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high..80 percent.

&&

Public Advisories on Tropical Storm Elida are issued under WMO 
header WTPZ35 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPEP5. 
Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Storm Elida are issued under 
WMO header WTPZ25 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMEP5.

$$
Forecaster Katz/Papin